A Climate Change Framework
Climate change is an immensely complex topic — one that incorporates an enormous number of variables, most of which we do not fully understand, and many of which are not even identified. This does not mean, however, that climate change is a complete unknown. In this post we list some of our basic assumptions as to the causes and effects of climate change.
1) The Climate Is Changing, and We Are the Cause
The foremost authority on climate change is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)., a conservative organization that is frequently criticized for being too cautious. Yet, in a recent report — Climate Change 2021. The Physical Science Basis — the IPCC stated,
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.
2) A Predicament - Not a Problem
The climate crisis is not a problem, it is a predicament. Problems have solutions; predicaments do not. When faced with a predicament we can respond and adapt, but we cannot make it go away. This means that, regardless of the actions that we take to control climate change, we cannot return to the “old normal”. We have delayed taking effective action for far too long; we are entering a new and rather scary world, like it or not.
3) The Climate Is Just One Piece in a Larger System
Climate change is part of a larger system that includes many other issues such as resource depletion (particularly crude oil), biosphere destruction, loss of top soil, ocean acidification and population growth. Hence responses to the climate problem may create problems elsewhere. For example, solar farms require large amounts of land. That land that could have been used to grow food, or to provide habitat for wild species.
Fundamentally, the climate crisis is just one aspect of an overall energy crisis. Modern society runs on the energy provided by fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. But those energy sources are being irreversibly depleted and they create greenhouse gases. Unfortunately, none of the alternative energy sources such as nuclear, solar, wind and geothermal posses the unique mix of properties provided by fossil fuels.
4) Leadership Is Needed
Our usual response to the climate crisis is to demand that ‘They’ do something. It is generally assumed that ‘They’ are national governments and international bodies such as the United Nations.
The chart shows how the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased during the last 30 years. Overlaid on the chart are the names of some of the major government and international events to do with the climate crisis. None of them have “bent the curve”. Governments have not provided effective leadership. There is an opportunity for businesses to fill the leadership gap.
5) Non-Linearity
We generally expect the future to be a simple, linear extension of the present. This assumption can be misleading. For example, about 20 years ago many analysts predicted that the price of crude oil would rise steadily as reserves were depleted and shortages became more common. (This way of thinking became the foundation of the ‘Peak Oil’ point of view.) In fact, oil prices fell in the following decade (although they seem to be on the rise once more).
When it comes to greenhouse gas emissions it is taken for granted that those emissions are going to steadily increase unless we do something about it. But we may find that greenhouse gas emissions will decline substantially in the near future, regardless of the actions that we take.
The following chart comes from the well-established Limits to Growth report.
The chart shows that, starting around the year 2030, there will be a steep decline in pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions. The decline is caused by an equally steep decline in our use of natural resources and industrial output per capita.
We need to be humble when making predictions — particularly when it comes to highly complex systems such as the Earth’s climate. We also need to keep in mind the old proverb,
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.
For example, the production of ammonia is a major source of CO2 emissions. The ammonia is used to manufacture the fertilizers that keep billions of people alive. If we cut back on ammonia production in order to ‘save the planet’ many people may die from starvation.
6) Tipping Points
Non-linear systems often create “tipping points” that lead to a sudden, large and irreversible changes. An example that is frequently used is a seesaw. As a person walks up one side the system is completely stable. But, when he reaches the middle, the seesaw tips suddenly and violently in the other direction. The person on the seesaw is thrown to the ground.
An example of a climate-related tipping point is the “clathrate gun”. Clathrates are a loose combination of methane and water located in the arctic, both in the tundra and on the sea bed. When warmed, these compounds break down and release methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Once the “gun” is fired a positive feedback loop is created. The increased methane concentrations increase atmospheric temperatures, which cause more clathrates to break down, which leads to more warming, and so on. This process can take place quickly, hence it is a tipping point.
Tipping points are not just physical events; they can also be a matter of perception. Suddenly people “get it”.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
(Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises).
The on-going drought in the American southwest could lead to a tipping point in attitudes. Climate scientists have been warning about this drought for years, yet people, by and large, have ignored those warnings. But, if the water levels in Lake Mead drop sufficiently to create a ‘dead pool’ then those same people may find that, when they open the faucets in their kitchens, no water flows. This would create a psychological tipping point.