Alternative Energy: Project Management

One of the most important criteria for each of the proposed energy sources is scalability ― whether that energy source can be scaled up in sufficient time, say by the year 2050. In order to provide a first-pass assessment as to the feasibility of each concept, a simple Phase-Gate diagram, such as that shown in the Figure, can be used. It contains four basic steps or phases: Concept, Demonstrate, Commercialize and Implement.

A Phase-Gate Diagram. Credit Ian Sutton

At the conclusion of each phase the technology or idea being considered moves forward in one of three ways.

1. Recycle

   The idea has potential and is worth further evaluation but more information or analysis is needed. Therefore it is recycled.

2. Stop/Hold

   The idea is terminated or put on hold. This is the most frequent decision. Most ideas are stopped at this point, either because they are not worth further investment or because they are not technically feasible when scaled up.

3. Next Phase

   The idea moves out of the Gate and on to the next Phase.

Phase I — Concept

Technologies at the Concept phase are basically at the ‘good idea’ level. On paper they have potential, maybe lots of potential, but they are not close to being commercialized. Some ideas can remain at the Phase I stage for years, even decades.

An example of such a technology is nuclear fusion (Chapter 9). In principle, this technology could solve the world’s energy problems. In fact, it has not delivered one joule of energy to a commercial grid, and there are no indications that it will do so for many years.

The time required to complete Phase I varies enormously depending on the technology that is being investigated. Sometimes many years, even decades, are required. Using nuclear fusion as an example once more, work on the peaceful application of nuclear fusion started in the 1950s. Yet, in the year 2018 the International Atomic Energy Agency stated,

. . . its potential to generate electricity at a commercial scale is several decades away . . .